Author: Marc Weinberg

November 18 - A key prep race for the J&B Met will be run this Saturday, November 19, at Kenilworth Racecourse, when the Grade 2 Weight For Age Green Point Stakes is contested over 1600m.

The betting indicates how wide open this race is, however, with Bravura installed as a lukewarm favourite at 3/1. His stable companion Lion In Winter is 5/1, and splitting the Ramsden pair at the top of the boards is Tales Of Bravery at 33/10. There are many other runners with chances, including the four sent out by Mike Bass, the filly Emerald Cove, and the untested three year old Alula Borealis.

Bravura will sport blinkers for the first time and has the services of the country's best jockey in Anton Marcus. He managed to get Bravura across the line to victory in the Cape Derby in an epic ride, and I feel that the horse is probably best suited to a mile or 1800m. He will be aimed at the Met, but the way he ran out of steam in that race last year, and also plodded on late in the July, suggests that a true-run mile could be what he wants.

He will have a lot of trouble holding off Lion In Winter, who continues to improve and is now a genuine contender for the big races. But the stable companion looks ideally suited to the Met distance, and while he should be running on here a win looks unlikely.

One runner who needs to be included obviously is Chesalon, the pick of the Bass entry. At 10/1 he makes the most betting appeal from a value perspective. He ran a great race last time out, and although worse off with Tales of Bravery should improve enough to reverse the placings. Tales of Bravery is another horse who is being pointed at the Met, and might not be fully wound up for this race.

Alula Borealis will have to be very good to beat this caliber field, and Emerald Cove is best at a little further (1800m seems ideal for her). My Exacta box for this race is Bravura, improving with blinkers, and Chesalon, with a small win bet on the latter for value.

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2012/04/02 09:28:57 PM