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Big Brown Drawn In The Car Park For Kentucky Derby - 05-01-08
May 1 - Richard Dutrow, the outspoken "character" (read obnoxious but talented) who trains Big Brown has basically promised that his horse will win the 2008 Kentucky Derby as he likes, provided he gets a clean break and doesn't bump any horses at the start. Well, Big Brown has drawn the outside stall gate of 20, so he'll be miles from the bumping, but he will have a lot further to travel as well.
Big Brown is the current Kentucky Derby betting favorite, and depending on whether you believe in the value of history or whether you look only at the form he is either incredibly overpriced (history would say this horse cannot win this race in this spot regardless of how talented he is), or the biggest gambling bargain of the 21st century. He is the best horse, but he is also very inexperienced, has beaten nothing of note, and will need a valet to find his stall gate.
We're going to go against Big Brown because it is very tough to win off only three lifetime starts. Even Curlin couldn't do it last year and he was also the "best horse in the race", and is now the best horse in the world. He didn't even come close and we had $2000 on the horse at 16/1 from before he ran in the Arkansas Derby, so we know of what we speak.
The post position of 20 is a huge problem. Big Brown did win from the outside stall at Gulfstream Park in a route race, which is practically impossible to do, so he is a huge talent, but that was 12 horses and they were all mediocre at best. This is not a very strong Derby field but there are horses like Colonel John, Z Fortune, Gayego, and even an outsider like Visionaire who have the talent to win a Triple Crown race.
We will say one thing: If Big Brown wins the Kentucky Derby he will win the Triple Crown, but we're betting against that based on the current set of circumstances.
Other Articles:
Mike Chambers Dominates At Turf Paradise - 05-05-08Top SA Horses To Race In Cox Plate - 05-05-08Eight Belles Euthanised After Kentucky Derby - 05-04-08Decision Time for Kentucky Derby Bettors - 05-02-08Godolphin Face 2000 Guineas Quandry - 04-29-08Archipenko Wins QEII Cup As Our Free Tip - 04-28-08Youbet CEO Steps Down - 04-26-08Chinese Draw On New Zealand Horse Racing Expertise - 04-24-08
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| | 2008/07/21 02:41:28 PM |
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