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2011 Breeders Cup Betting Preview For Day 2
Author: Marc Weinberg
November 3 - Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup meet for 2011 at Churchill Downs is the main event and will feature some great racehorses, although the absence of Frankel, Black Caviar, Rocket Man, and even Danedream means that this is a far cry from a "world championship" since the world's top-rated racehorses are largely absent. Still, we have North America's best horses, as well as Goldikova, Sarafina, and So You Think for what should be a great day of racing. Here are the free selections:
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Respect is due to BRIGANTIN, who stays all day and has a win over the recent Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden on his resume, but this looks too short for the Andre Fabre trained colt owned by Team Valor. ELDAAFER has the form over the course and distance to win the opener, and at a great price. He trades at 12/1. Great value here to start off our day.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Team Valor won this race last year with Pluck, and look to have a horse of better quality to try and make it two in a row this time around in STATE OF PLAY (they also send out Lucky Chappy, who could bring home a small stake). He has had an interrupted preparation to say the least for this race, but his trainer is great with turf horses and his recent work (which I was fortunate enough to watch in person at Keeneland) was very solid. At 9/2 he is probably right where he should be, but that's still a nice price and I'm taking him to win.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Big Drama is the favorite here, but I have my doubts that he will defend his crown (he won the Sprint last year in a doddle). He's had only two starts this year and a small upset looks likely. My vote goes to the West Coast challenger AMAZOMBIE, who is ultra-consistent and at odds of 6/1 is excellent each-way value.
Breeders' Cup Turf
I am skipping ahead a couple of races to the best bet of the meeting. There are no good American turf horses this year and this race is at the mercy of European challengers; one in particular really - SARAFINA. If you have only one bet it should be on this horse. At odds of 5/2 it is a steal. The only danger is Sea Moon, but Sarafina should have too much finishing speed for him.
Breeders' Cup Mile
No bet advised here because it is hard to beat Goldikova, but she has lost a couple of lengths this season and is by no means a certainty. Note that she is probably only the fourth-best miler in Europe this season so gets an easy chance to win an amazing fourth consecutive mile. I hope she does, but won't put money on it.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
The talking horse is Union Rags, but at 2/1 he seems too short to me. For those looking to bet the race my pick is HANSEN, who could be just as special and is 8/1. Juvenile races can produce any result and surely it is better to look for a bit of value in the betting market. Only a small wager though!
Breeders' Cup Classic
The big one, and another opportunity for a brilliant filly to beat the boys and become horse of the year. HAVRE DE GRACE is this year's Zenyatta, and will have to beat UNCLE MO, a worthy adversary to be sure. I am not sure the latter will stay a true-run 10 furlongs. There will be early pace and maybe he can rate but at 10/3 I can't bet him. The filly is also tough to bet if only because she failed at this course last year in a much easier Breeders' Cup race, and is also probably better at a mile and 1/8.
So You Think has had a really tough campaign, and may not take to the dirt. And so I am left contemplating an upset result, and at the current odds will side with FLAT OUT. He will get the trip, and is as tough and consistent as they come. I like that previous win over DROSSELMEYER a lot, and feel that both those horses will hit the board here. Take FLAT OUT to win the Classic at 6/1.
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Green Point Stakes Betting Preview and Free TipsJet Master Passes AwayInternational Jockeys Challenge Betting Preview - Turffontein 2011 Breeders Cup Betting Recap - A Lack Of Brilliance2011 Breeders Cup Betting Preview For Day 1 2011 Breeders Cup Features 29 Overseas EntriesFree Horse Racing Tips For Quartet Maxipool CarryoverTizway Out Of 2011 Breeders Cup Classic
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