Author: Marc Weinberg

November 1 - Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup meet for 2011 at Churchill Downs is definitely the under-card in terms of quality and purses, but from a betting point of view offers some interesting value propositions. Here is my analysis and recommended wagering strategy for the day.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint

A new addition to the meeting, making it the 15th Breeders' Cup race. This will be the inaugural running and it shows in the lack of quality. In terms of speed figures it is a one-horse race with SECRET CIRCLE a cut above the competition. That's reflected in the odds though, as he currently trades at 4/5. No value here, so would pass on a bet.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf

First good bet of the day in ELUSIVE KATE, trained by John Gosden, who certainly knows a thing or two about raiding successfully at this meeting. The danger could well be STEPHANIE'S KITTEN, so add her to any Exacta or Trifecta bets. The Europeans should get their first winner here though and at 5/2 she's decent value.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

I am looking for an upset result here. Turbulent Descent is a worthy favorite but let's try and find a bit of a long-shot for the honors in this one. I like GREAT HOT, the Brazilian-bred who is a big price at 14/1. Her prep run for this race at Keeneland sets her up for a big run at at these odds she makes the most appeal.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies'

MY MISS AURELIA is the logical choice here, and at the moment is trading at 9/4, which looks a massive price. She demolished a Gr1 field last time out and her time was faster than the colts in the Champagne on the same day. She won by more than 5 lengths without really being pushed and if she can repeat that sort of run around a two-turn track it is race over.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Stacelita will be priced up as favorite here, but on her French form she is no better than third in my market behind ANNOUNCE and NAHRAIN. The latter beat the former by a nose last time out in a tough race a month ago. At the weights Announce would now be in a spot to exact revenge but NAHRAIN is lightly-raced and should be the fresher of the two horses. She is also more likely to improve from that race and for that reason at 4/1 looks to be the better bet. Take NAHRAIN to win here.

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

Another race that could see an upset. PLUM PRETTY is the favorite and if she repeats her race last time she was seen at this course (when winning the Kentucky Oaks) then she will be hard to beat again. I am worried that she comes out flat following her last race, which was almost too good as a prep. Call me crazy but I will side with PACHATTACK, who had an excellent prep in the Spinster Stakes and has a closing style that could really come into play in this race. At 16/1 PACHATTACK is the value pick.

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2011 Breeders Cup Betting Recap - A Lack Of Brilliance

2011 Breeders Cup Betting Preview For Day 2

2011 Breeders Cup Features 29 Overseas Entries

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2011/12/09 12:49:31 AM